Predictions for the 98th Academy Awards
98th? Is that right? I think so.
Writing, Original Screenplay - Sentimental Value
A very interesting screenplay, written by Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, that explores generational trauma and digs into the morality of reviving memories and life events for artistic purposes, with respect to both the events themselves and to the other parties who also share those memories. Crucially, it doesn’t give us an answer either way, forcing us to confront how we feel about it by the end.
Writing, Adapted Screenplay - One Battle After Another
One of several awards I reckon OBAA will take throughout the evening. Adapted from Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, this is a screenplay that bursts with energy throughout and weaves between comedy and action effectively. While I don’t believe it to be perfect, there’s a lack of resolution with regards to Teyana Taylor’s Perfidia Beverly Hills character that could have elevated the film to another level, and I think the second half of the film, while compelling, can be a bit clunky, it is still a film filled with incredible set pieces and compelling characters that make it arguably the hardest film here to forget.
Visual Effects - Avatar: Fire and Ash
Look it’s an Avatar movie. While collective interest in the lore of Avatar has surely wained now by its third edition, very few things still come close as a purely visual spectacle.
Sound - F1
Look it may not be the favourite for best picture, but I don’t think it’ll go home empty handed. Those who have followed F1 for a period of more than a few years will become in tune with it as much as an auditory experience as much as a visual/dramatic one. Much of the sound cues - the tyres on the track, the buzz of the starting lights, Crofty’s smooth tones - are what make F1 feel like a complete product, and it’s the attention to detail to these and so many others that make F1 (the film) feel surprisingly authentic throughout.
Short Film, Live Action - Jane Austen’s Period Drama
A smartly written comedy-drama built on miscommunication, that explores Regency era attitudes and ignorance towards menstruation. Name power, and themes that will appeal to many academy voters.
Short Film, Animated - Retirement Plan
A poignant short with a lovely simplistic animation style, in which a middle-aged man, voiced by Domnhall Gleeson, ponders the many dreams, from the mundane to the overly ambitious, that we all dream we’ll do when time stops being an issue.
Production Design - Frankenstein
The set design in Frankenstein is arguably its strongest asset. They are prominent visually and perfectly reflect the characters, the lab representing the eccentricity of Dr Frankenstein, while the murky chambers underneath capture the inhumane origins of the monster.
Music (Original Song) - “I Lied to You (from Sinners)”
Yeah go on, this seems right. A catchy song that develops in sound and matches up to a fantastic scene in the movie, the sudden infusion of the electric guitar is a fascinating moment that helps the song span many different eras.
Music (Original Score) - Sinners
Two juggernauts meet in this category, Jonny Greenwood receives his third nomination in this category for One Battle After Another, facing off against twice-former winner Ludwig Göransson with Sinners. I believe Ludwig Göransson will take home his third Oscar here.
Make-up and Hairstyling - Frankenstein
While there was a lot of incredible make-up work done in this film, I can’t ignore the fact that I spent the majority of the film aware that I was looking at Jacob Elordi in make-up, rather than a monster comprised of random human body parts. Still, I think being the most striking film here visually, along with a host of wins already in this category, will make it a shoo-in here.
International Feature Film - Sentimental Value
This is either going to Sentimental Value or The Secret Agent, and whilst I found the latter to be the most more tense, immersive, and surprising at times, there were many aspects that left me wanting, whereas Sentimental Value feels like the more well-rounded film.
Film Editing - One Battle After Another
To give a shoutout to the deserving winner of this category, the editing in Marty Supreme played the most prominent role in making the film effective, the relentless pacing in Marty Supreme key to making it such a frenetic, immersive experience. However, I think the editing in One Battle After Another, best highlighted in the enthralling final car chase, will take the win here.
Documentary (Short Subject) - The Devil is Busy
A documentary that shows an abortion clinic put under siege by protesters. It is very much worth highlighting the public-facing services that find themselves caught in the crossfire of increasingly volatile and divisive political discourse.
Documentary (Feature Length) - Mr Nobody against Putin
A topic that consistently sweeps this category, and spurred on by a win at the BAFTAs, I expect it to repeat the trick here.
Costume Design - Sinners
I’m not confident if Sinners will win this one but I think it deserves to, every character had a striking appearance and I think the subtle uniqueness in each of their outfits play a key role in shaping the personalities of the ensemble here.
Casting - Marty Supreme
A NEW CATEGORY YOU SAY? I am excited for this and I have a strange feeling this could after a few years find itself entering the field of the major categories at the awards. I think Marty Supreme deserves to be the inaugural winner here although I could equally see Sinners winning on the strength of its ensemble, but I think MS’s array of striking looking characters and its ability to prize incredibly performances out of non-professional actors is a testament to its bold casting.
Cinematography - Train Dreams
The brilliant cinematography of Train Dreams and the way it captured the wonders of nature and the changing face of America at the dawn of the industrial revolution was a surprisingly emotional experience. I’m routing for it, but I also think sheer momentum will see One Battle After Another take the win here, a win that would be equally deserved in all honesty.
Best Animated Feature Film - Elio
Elio was adorable, with a lot of good action and fun characters. K-Pop Demon Hunters could also foreseeably win here which would be well deserved just for the sheer cultural moment of it. I hope the academy will steer away from a Zootopia 2 win here, a franchise that already felt like it had run out of steam early on into the sequel. Also, is it Zootopia or Zootropolis? Pick one.
Directing - Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
We’re into the official Business End of the awards here, and surprisingly, there doesn’t seem to be much doubt in this one, so much so that I didn’t even confirm the other nominees in this category. One Battle After Another is a juggernaut at these awards, with the stars finally seeming to align for Paul Thomas Anderson, and I think it’ll be 4th time lucky in this category for him.
Actor in a Supporting Role - Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
When the nominees were announced, I was really excited to see Sean Penn nominated in this category, even if there wasn’t much talk of him as a possible winner. However, a BAFTAs win I didn’t see coming, followed by a win at the Actor Awards, has pushed him ahead in this category, and I think he’ll take a much-deserved win here. Honestly, for all that was good in One Battle After Another, I think Sean Penn’s Colonel Lockjaw was the highlight, a captivating, yet utterly insecure, and completely demonic antagonist.
I would have adored a Kevin O’Leary nomination in this category. It would have been a testament to the film’s casting, and I think he gives a creepy yet incredible performance, fully embodying the establishment, a Logan Roy-esque antagonist that Marty Mauser is rallying against, while also being in constant need of his support. Yes I know O’Leary isn’t without baggage, but let’s not act like Sean Penn doesn’t also have a political views section on his Wikipedia.
Actress in a Supporting Role - Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Weapons was one of my favourite films of the year. A complete shut-out would have been a tragedy, and I was so happy to see Amy Madigan nominated in this category, and even more pleased to see her taking wins in the Actor and Critics Choice awards. I hope she can cap it off with an Oscar win here, I strongly believe Amy Madigan did the most here with the least amount of screen time, creating an antagonist whose presence throughout is completely unsettling, and her downfall at the end unbelievably satisfying.
Actor in a Leading Role - Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
The year of the antagonists? There’s a strong case to be made for Marty Mauser being the villain in this movie, the architect of all his own problems, and I think in the midst of this, Timothee Chalamet gives the best performance of his illustrious career so far. His character is surprisingly sympathetic, constantly in motion, and his charm is undeniable. While this category has strong performances all round, I think Timothee is operating on another level here. The only performance I would have had running it close was Jesse Plemons in Bugonia, who I think gives one of his career-best performances in Bugonia.
Actress in a Leading Role - Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Obviously. The devastation of Jessie Buckley’s Agnes Shakespeare by the end of the film is made all the more impactful by how brilliantly she portrays the innocence and joy of motherhood earlier on in the film. I truly wouldn’t mind an Emma Stone win here, I think both her and Jesse Plemons were on fire in Bugonia, however this performance is less big than her performance in Poor Things for example. The fact that Bugonia feels like the standard for an Emma Stone performance is testament to the ridiculous level she operates at.
Best Picture - One Battle After Another
Right lets run through these one by one.
Marty Supreme - 0%
This isn’t winning best picture, but following the shut out that Uncut Gems received, the fact that it even made it this far is a step in the right decision, though this may be testament to the star power of Timothee Chalamet. You could make a strong argument that it deserves it, but it’s simply too weird a film to win the biggest prize.
Hamnet - 0%
The Bafta for best motion picture was Hamnet’s to win, and I was stunned that it didn’t win that. If it didn’t manage to win that, it’s not winning here.
The Secret Agent - 0%
The more I look back on the nominees last year, the more I think Ainda Estou Aqui should have been in the proper conversation for Best Picture, nay even won it. While there’s a lot of fun to be had in The Secret Agent, it is not at the same level of I’m Still Here.
Frankenstein - 0%
Was this anyone’s favourite film of the year? Despite having a lot going for it, Frankenstein felt to me like a film lesser than the sum of its parts. Despite the technical brilliance, set production, A-List stars, Guillermo Del Toro, it is nowhere near good enough to make itself the ‘definitive’ Frankenstein movie, but I don’t even doubt that the presence of this film will stop them from rebooting Frankenstein again within the next ten years.
Bugonia - <1%
It’s far too weird to win, and it won’t. However, the image of the morning after the Oscars, where Twitter and Instagram and everywhere are scrambling to analyse how Bugonia took Best Picture, in the same way as with The Green Book, feels so vivid to me that I can’t ignore the possibility.
Sentimental Value - <1%
I think this has a better chance than The Secret Agent, partly due to its sheer weight in the acting categories and a possible win in the screenplay category, propelled by big names like Stellan Skarsgard and Joachim Trier. Still, I think a film in the International Feature Film category has to be perfect to have a shot at Best Picture. Parasite was, but I don’t think any of the contenders since have been there.
F1 - 3%
Cue the 90 minute HBO movie in 6 years time exploring how studio influence, tactical marketing, and “plan C” helped F1 not only get a Best Picture nomination, but to emerge victorious in the category too.
Train Dreams - 4%
Winning cinematography would be a big help, and after the big two, I genuinely see this as being the next highest contender. A moving tale of grief, ghosts, and nature, with great performances, vivid characters and stunning imagery. I personally think it’s the most broadly appealing of all the Best Picture nominees, and considering the preferential balloting system for this category, if it ranks high up on a high percentage of ballots, it may (may) just squeeze through.
Sinners - 36%
Probably the best shot a vampire movie’s ever gonna have at Best Picture, and I’m partly routing for it for that alone. Sinners is an incredibly creative movie that builds tension impeccably, and keeps elevating itself to a new level.
The Best Picture moment? The changing of the aspect ratio at the start of the action scene when the zombies break into the barn, akin to watching the end of a cutscene in a video game before you return to gameplay.
One Battle After Another - 56%
Equally imaginative as Sinners, also boasting great action scenes, and with themes that aren’t too dissimilar either. Where the difference lies is with the greater starpower of the names on display. With Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Leonardo DiCaprio, all with legendary careers behind them. And most important is PTA. Many great directors have years where all the stars finally align for them, Bong Joon-Ho in 2020, Christopher Nolan in 2024, and I think this is the year of Paul Thomas Anderson.
OBAA’s Best Picture moment? There are many, but I would choose Alana Haim’s failed exit from the bank when the military clamp down on the French 75. A sudden moment that show’s the brutal nature of this film’s antagonists, and foreshadows the many surprises this movie has up its sleeve at seemingly every turn.
So, let’s check the scores:
One Battle After Another - 5
Sinners - 3
Sentimental Value - 2
Frankenstein - 2
Train Dreams - 1
F1 - 1
Marty Supreme - 1
I’m expecting a fun ceremony and am very much excited to see Conan O’Brien hosting again. We’re now four years on from the slapping incident (sorry), I wonder if we could be due for something mental this year. We can but hope.