Predictions for the 96th Academy Awards
This Sunday it’s the battle of Hollywood, as the irresistible force of Ludwig Goransson meets the immovable force of John Williams in a clash that’s going to go down in history as one of the many categories being decided this weekend. Who will win this time between Maestro and Oppenheimer? Then later on in the evening, live, the battle for best production design, as Napoleon meets Poor Things, in a category already being described as ON THIS SUNDAY.
Coming up, the giants of Nimona play host to the titans of Elemental, making them both seem normal sized. Then The Holdovers face The Killers of Flower Moon for the second time in the evening to see who will win that. Looking ahead, each film will be facing each other several times and in various combinations, and you can catch all the Oscars build-up, all the time, here.
It’s all here and it’s all film always. It’s impossible to keep track of all the films, but your BEST CHANCE is here! Thousands and thousands of hours of film each more climactic than the last! Constant dizzying 24-hours year-long film. Every category MASSIVELY mattering to someone presumably. It will never stop! The films are officially going on forever! It will never be decided who has won film. There is still everything to watch, and forever to watch it in! So that’s the films, coming up! So watch it, watch the film, watch it, it’s gonna grab best editing, watch it! It’s FILM!!!!!!
Writing, Original Screenplay - Anatomy Of A Fall
Starting with the best categories (at least in my opinion), I’ve got Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s Anatomy Of A Fall, winning for original screenplay. This film, which seems to effortlessly jump between drama and comedy, depicts the fallout of the death of a French writer, and the ensuing trial of his wife. This film excels in character, with the core cast of husband, wife, son, Messi the dog, lawyer, and prosecuting attorney, each captivating in their own right.
My alternative shout here would be Past Lives, a very restrained and very realistic portrayal of a reunion between two former lovers, who come to realise that they don’t need to be any more to each other than reminders of a past life. The film is able to produce some very tender moments, while also posing some heavy existential questions.
Writing, Adapted Screenplay - Oppenheimer
I initially thought Oppenheimer was a certainty for this award, but was pleasantly surprised to see the Baftas award this category to Zone of Interest. While the latter was terrifically written, a haunting exposé on the human condition and the ease with which we can co-exist with injustice and atrocities, I still believe that Christopher Nolan will take this award. With his screenplay, Nolan pushed the bounds of what we expect from a biopic, not just telling the story of Oppenheimer’s life, but at the same time producing a wartime epic, a heist movie, a thriller that sustains its tension over a ridiculously long time, and a musical (tell me I’m wrong).
The great success of Oppenheimer is in how well it handles one of the most pivotal moments of the 20th century, when it may easily have fallen foul of glorifying the use of nuclear weapons, or of giving a very one-sided depiction of events that have split opinions for decades. With the screenplay uniquely written from the first-person point of view of its protagonist, the film brilliantly captures the horror of a creator who has created something larger than he will ever be, and who will never truly know the extent of his own legacy, as the impacts of his creation on Earth are too complicated to ever be fully understood.
Visual Effects - Godzilla Minus One
Some fantastic looking films in this category, but having seen some very underwhelming Godzilla films in the last decade, I feel this film deserves the credit for making Godzilla look as terrifying as he’s supposed to be.
Sound - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
I almost gave this one to Oppenheimer, but after considering whether I’d fallen into the trap of awarding for most sound rather than best sound, I decided to go for Mission Impossible. Plus, with Oppenheimer, I left slightly disappointed as I was fully hoping to be blasted off my seat by the Trinity nuclear test scene, only to be left in silence. Dead Reckoning I felt was a step-up from previous editions in the saga in terms of technical achievement, and had a similar effect to Top Gun: Maverick last year, in which the scale of the films many stunts was fully realised and each moment felt all the more real and all the more perilous than in many other action movies, and impeccable sound work was key to this.
Short Film, Live Action - The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
In most years, I like to give all the nominees in this category a fair chance, however in most years, Wes Anderson isn’t in this category. As we saw in last year’s Animated Short category, star power has a lot of pull in these categories, mainly due to the increased exposure it brings. Henry Sugar (I’m not writing it in full every time) is absolutely stacked, with Benedict Cumberbatch, Ben Kingsley, Richard Ayoade, Ralph Fiennes, and Dev Patel, all contributing very strong and energetic performances. The fact this short is Netflix-produced, an adaptation of a Roald Dahl tale, directed by Wes Anderson, make Henry Sugar an absolute juggernaut in this category - the fact it’s genuinely a very intriguing story with all the Anderson charm, that plays a lot with its format and storytelling techniques, is just the icing on the cake.
Short Film, Animated - Ninety-Five Senses
This film got really heavy really fast. An animated short that explores our five senses as an elderly man, voiced by Tim Blake Nelson, recounts the story of his life, told through key smells, sounds, tastes, textures, and sights, building up to his final moments. The story is engaging, heartfelt, and manages to make a line about a man wishing he’d ordered ketchup into the most devastating thing you’ve ever heard.
Last thing by the way, if you’re a studio, and you release a trailer for your short film on YouTube, and you get a raft of comments asking where they can watch the full version of this short film, REPLY TO THEM!
Production Design - Poor Things
Between Barbie and Poor Things here and I’m leaning towards the latter, as it not only contained incredibly vivid and grand locations, but manages to present them in a fantastical way, and while the distortion of the camera definitely contributes to that, the way in which the locations of the creator’s house and futuristic Lisbon for example invite you in and beg to be explored further, I believe is what the winners of this category should achieve.
Music (Original Song) - “What Was I Made For?” - Barbie
The most likely to win, I think some very ethereal sounding vocals and an emotional, longing chorus will grab this award, however this does come with a warning that discretion is needed going forward, as we’re in real danger of letting this become the official Billie Eilish category.
Music (Original Score) - Oppenheimer
I had my minor qualms with the score that Ludwig Göransson produced for Tenet, finding it at times to be too climactic without much space to breathe in between and noting many times where it drowned out the movie’s dialogue. While there were a few instances where the latter occurred in Oppenheimer, I found the score much more complimentary of the events on screen, and the score definitely aided the pacing of the film, which never seemed to drag throughout its runtime. Even taking quality out of the equation, the fact Ludwig was able to create three hours of constant music (bar a couple minutes for the explosion), without running out of ideas or repeating melodies deserves recognition in itself.
Makeup and Hairstyling - Poor Things
Part of what makes Poor Things stand out is its immaculate and quirky character designs. From Emma Stone’s instantly recognisable hair parting, to Willem Dafoe’s heavily reconstructed face, to Mark Ruffalos moustache, and I’m not saying that we should award Oscars just for giving people moustaches but…wait…I think I am actually.
International Feature Film - The Zone of Interest
As ever, its nomination for Best Picture should guarantee this win here. The Zone of Interest is an incredibly smartly written film, while not telling a massively intricate narrative, manages to communicate a massive amount, some particularly some very unpleasant truths about the perpetrators of the horrors of the holocaust, who were able to do so despite being such ordinary figures in their day-to-day lives. This film is one that requires a second watch, as each frame contains a statement or depicts some kind of horror, which viewers may easily miss if they’re busy searching for an over-arching story to latch on to.
Film Editing - Oppenheimer
With the fast pace of this movie, the massive run time, the sheer amount of cuts, you’d think at least one of them wouldn’t land, at least one of them would have a jarring effect. But alas, you don’t notice any of them, in fact, you don’t notice any of the editing in this movie, which is impressive, as there was a lot of it.
Documentary (Short Subject) - The ABCs of Book Banning
Sometimes you can just so vividly imagine the title of a film being read aloud to ensuing waves of applause. The fact that we have a current debate about the banning of books, with many pundits and politicians unashamedly supporting the burning of them, in 2024, is absurd. This short documentary passionately pays homage to many of the books in history that have faced banning calls, and the inherent value that they bring society. The film features a strong speech from 101-year-old Grace Linn at a public session, condemning the fear that drives book banning as the opposite of freedom and liberty which America holds so dear.
Documentary (Feature Length) - 20 Days in Mariupol
A very bleak, first hand account of life in Mariupol as it is besieged by Russian forces in the early stages of the invasion in 2022. The film amasses a haunting dossier of evidence of war crimes committed by Russia, and serves as a tribute to, and an exhibition of the bravery and the importance of journalists and war correspondents who work under life-threatening conditions to make sure the world sees what’s taking place.
Costume Design - Killers of the Flower Moon
A period piece which not only perfected the style of fashion in 1920s America, but also perfects the typical wear of the Osage tribe, and shows the ways the two intersect for members of both communities. The wealth of research that went into designing costumes for this film including accessing the sales records of an Oregon blanket company dating back to the early 1900s. This film’s achievement goes not into nailing the authenticity of the Osage costumes, but how they marry these with the status of the characters and the formality of their situations, while also accounting for the style choices specific to the family of Mollie Kyle (aka Mollie Burkhart).
Cinematography - Poor Things
The behaviour of the camera propelled Poor Things to another level and massively enhanced the energy and the fantastical nature that the film was aiming for, with the camera adopting a fish-eye effect when Emma Stone’s character is still in her baby-brained stage, before taking on a much more conventional style as her character matures into her new body.
Animated Feature Film - The Boy and The Heron
A film that was released to almost universal acclaim, the latest offering from Studio Ghibli tells the story of a boy who is taken by a talking heron into a fantastical world during the Pacific War. The film features a stellar cast of voice actors, with the english dub featuring Robert Pattinson, Florence Pugh, Willem Dafoe, and Mark Hamill, and was evidently worth Hiyao Miyazaki coming out of retirement to direct.
Directing - Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Not only is it surprising that Nolan has never won an Oscar for his directing, but this is actually only his second nomination in this category ever, with Nolan having been more recognised for his writing thus far than his directing, at least by the Academy. Even if voters had issues with the stories for Inception/Interstellar, which I can understand, it’s staggering they’d look at the sheer achievement of the directing there and just think “nah”.
Last year, however, with Oppenheimer, the stars just seemed to align for Nolan. The increased fanfare brought by the coinciding release of Barbie helped Oppenheimer break out of the niche market that Nolan’s films might usually attract. The multi-faceted way in which Oppenheimer approached both it’s titular character’s life and his legacy is stellar, but Nolan’s greatest achievement here might be the 10/10 performance he managed to pry out of every single cast member in this film. Ensemble cast category now please.
Actor in a Supporting Role - Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Downey Jr stars as Lewis Strauss, the Salieri to Oppenheimer’s Amadeus. He is just so good in this role, the accent, the gruff voice, the sneers, as he feels like he’s the only person who’s seen through Oppy’s show of hand-wringing and attempts to distance himself from his own creation. I would have liked to see a nomination for Jason Clarke, who absolutely dominates in his few scenes in the security clearance hearing, serving as a powerful antagonist, digging up every insecurity and inconsistency in Oppenheimer’s story.
Actress in a Supporting Role - Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Would be a travesty if a film as heartwarming as The Holdovers went home with nothing. Luckily, I believe Randolph, in her role as the high school cafeteria manager Mary Lamb, will take home best supporting actress. She is a very tender presence in this film, often the mediator between the two leading men, while portraying a grieving character, who knows the only thing she can do amidst the pain of losing her son in battle is to continue living her life.
Actor in a Leading Role - JOINT WINNER: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer AND Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
I’m feeling very brave for this prediction. There are precedents for ties at the Oscars, but only a mere six occurrences in its history - the most recent coming in 2013 when both Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty claimed Oscars for best sound editing.
Both actors give arguably the best performance of their careers here, Murphy is excellent at nailing the many facets of Oppenheimer, his lust for Jean Tatlock, his personal investment in fighting the Axis forces, his subtle arrogance upon gaining the respect of his many peers in the scientific community, and the inner turmoil that grows and grows as he realises he will spend the rest of his days facing scrutiny for his role and motives in the creation of the bomb. Paul Giamatti is very funny and bursts with charisma in The Holdovers, as he takes on the role of the required authority figure, only for his experiences over Christmas with the rest of the holdovers to unlock his easier, sympathetic side, and forces him to question his loyalties. Plus, he acted the whole time with a fake lazy eye, and proclaimed he couldn’t see the whole time. Give him that damn Oscar.
By the way, I’m not playing it safe here, I’m only counting this if they both win. I am betting the whole house on the rarely seen double win, so to speak. Come on snake eyes!
Actress in a Leading Role - Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Voted ‘Most Likely to Win an Oscar’ in her high school yearbook, it looks like Lily’s time may well have come. While Emma Stone was brilliant and frenetic in Poor Things, I believe Lily Gladstone produced the more impactful performance in Killers of the Flower Moon, perfectly blending Mollie’s despair at the deaths of several family members with her resolve to seek justice and force the authorities to investigate these incidents, even as she finds her body ‘slowing down’. Her acting is very emotional and very subtle, and she manages to convey a whole lot with just her eyes.
Best Picture - Oppenheimer
It’s going to be Barbie isn’t it. I just know it’s gonna be Barbie, but I’m still gonna hang my hat on Oppenheimer. All the nominees here have a fair crack I feel, American Fiction was very funny and very scathing in who it was targeting, while The Holdovers was a heartwarming, nostalgic watch with some beautifully crafted character arcs. Past Lives was an incredibly intimate film that refuses to go where you expect it to, Maestro features an emphatic lead performance from Bradley Cooper, Poor Things was an explosion of quirkiness that tackles some sinister themes in some very imaginative ways, and Anatomy of a Fall is an incredibly smartly written piece, demonstrating how easily the public fare of court trials can portray ordinary people as monsters.
I want to give a special shoutout to Killers of the Flower Moon and The Zone of Interest, both of whom do one of my favourite things in film, which is the unceremonious time jump. Without warning or even an on-screen annotation, both films feature a moment whereby we are yanked out of the world we had immersed ourselves in over the course of the film, cutting to a scene years and years (almost a century) later, looking upon events from a detached, birds eye point of view, where all the characters and intricacies have been left behind. This same thing happens in the final season of Better Call Saul, and it’s such a uniquely and fascinatingly jarring experience that just shows how scary the march of time can be.
Nonetheless, I expect the Barbenheimer theme to be recurring throughout the evening, likely remarked upon in several skits and speeches, and I feel it will ultimately be one of the two that ends up with the top prize. Oppenheimer would be the logical choice, one of the greatest cinematic achievements of the decade so far, with all the momentum of awards season, and I believe it’ll have a solid foundation of Oscars already on the board, and that’s why I’m sticking with it for this award. However, Barbie could do it you know. It could, I can smell it, I can feel it in the air.
So, them’s me picks. I believe this should be a very good ceremony, with a lot of fantastic films to be celebrate, a very strong list of presenters, and a very special milestone as Jimmy Kimmel marks his 100th straight year presenting the Academy Awards, here’s to many more! It’s a shame some very very boring people have prevented Messi the Dog of Anatomy of a Fall fame from attending the ceremony, the very least they could do is let Killers of the Flower Moon’s Eli the Owl present best picture. We’ve been very good this year, we deserve a treat.