Predictions for the 95th Academy Awards

And they’re back, has it been another year already? This year we’ve got 23 awards to be handed out, a strong range of films with quite a few trends regarding genre and themes popping up, and some quality performances being recognised. As part of the Academy’s continued crusade against fun, they’ll be patting themselves on the back for yet another year without a host, a trend I’m glad that other award shows are yet to follow, with Richard E Grant’s hosting being the highlight of this year’s Baftas. In this article as usual, I’ll predict the winners for each category, so read on to see who I tip for the big awards and to see how far I can make it without mentioning The Event.

Writing, Original Screenplay - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Every year, I find categories where I have to wrestle with who I think will win and who I think should win. In this category, we have The Fabelmans, a brilliant storytelling of Steven Spielberg’s journey with film that utilises every scene perfectly, producing fascinating character journeys, without ever becoming tedious or over-indulgent. The Banshees of Inisherin is a brilliantly unique film that takes a seemingly very small premise and elevates it into so much more, producing fascinating explorations on friendship and companionship dynamics while delivering twists and turns throughout.

While I think either of the two aforementioned would be worthy winners of this category, I believe momentum will see it awarded to the Russo Brothers’ Everything Everywhere All At Once. Despite what I perceive to be several flaws in EEAAO particularly relating to a bloated runtime, overuse of certain locations, and a dependence on quirkiness that loses its impact before long, this film did produce some genuinely heartwarming moments between the cast, a strong commentary on generational trauma, and world-building and action sequences that, for a short while at least, are genuinely fascinating.

Writing, Adapted Screenplay - All Quiet On The Western Front

While many war films celebrate specific victories, All Quiet on the Western Front sticks to the theme throughout that there are no winners. Bitterness and ego drives the decision-making of those at the top, and those below them pay accordingly with their lives. The film doesn’t allow us to revel in the defeats of the Nazi army because these are portrayed in the same way as those the other way, brutal, hollow, and inhumane. Lead character Paul Bäumer [SPOILER ALERT] meets many characters throughout the film more skilled and more suited to war than him and finds himself living through the death of each one. The films ending sends us away with a very strong anecdote and message of “if you’re lucky, you might survive long enough to die just seconds before the end of the war.”

I found Glass Onion to be a dubious nomination here, I felt it suffered quite a drop-off from the original in terms of both its characterisation and its ending, though still managed to deliver some very funny moments. Top Gun: Maverick is a very strong contender, with sharp writing and a great dynamic between Cruise and Teller, often surpassing the original in terms of quality, but I don’t see it having enough to overcome All Quiet on the Western Front.

Visual Effects - Avatar: The Way of Water

I mean come on. All the films here had very strong visual effects and scenery but, like the original, Avatar just took it to another level.

Sound - The Batman

This was a very very hard one. Every one of these were propelled by several grand moments that each could have fallen completely flat had the sound design been even slightly off. I’ve chosen Batman as I don’t expect it to be fully shutout this year and this is the category I feel it has the best chance of winning.

Short Film, Live Action - Night Ride

A woman accidentally robs a tram. The setup is already amazing in and of itself, and amidst the fun and games of this ride, she inadvertently finds herself as the sole authority, who must step in when a female passenger is cornered by two aggressive males.

Short Film, Animated - Ice Merchants

Very strong category this. The Flying Sailor features great music and portrays a stunningly true story, but ultimately proves quite forgettable in comparison to the other nominees here. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse is a quasi-heartwarming piece with stellar animation boasting some star names including Tom Hollander and Idris Elba, but is evidently produced for a younger audience and comes off a bit too feel good at times, with the whole film being less of a story and more just a pinboard for motivational/feel-good Facebook quotes. The exceptionally named An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It is a fourth-wall breaking piece that is amusing, well-paced, and plays with it’s form very effectively. My Year of Dicks is perhaps my personal favourite in this category, a story of a woman’s conquest to lose her virginity, told in five parts with five distinct animation styles. This short absolutely bursts with energy, and is just as funny, as heartwarming, and awkward as you’d expect any coming-of-age film to be.

I believe that Ice Merchants will take the win here. A story of a father and son who make a perilous journey from their mountain home to the city below each day just to sell ice, a routine that provides them both a pleasant life until a change in the weather impacts everything for them. Without a single word uttered, the two characters showcase companionship and loss in a variety of the ways, and the animation and editing allow the film to create breathtaking tension throughout.

Production Design - Babylon

I feel a good indicator for this award is whether there are scenes that feel like they’ve been included just to showcase certain locations, but all round, the set design in Babylon does a great job in adding to the glamour and mystery of key scenes, while allowing for some extravagant cinematography.

Music (Original Song) - Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Look, if we give Rihanna an Oscar, there’s a chance she’ll come back and make more music. And all I’m saying is the point where Rihanna stopped releasing solo music was interestingly right around the time where everything in the world, namely in politics, started getting weird.

Music (Original Score) - Babylon

Because Justin Hurwitz and whoever was on the trumpet the whole time deserve it.

Makeup and Hairstyling - All Quiet On The Western Front

Perhaps a bit more understated than the other displays on show in this category, but in All Quiet (AQOTWF wasn’t a very good acronym for it), the vastness of the cast makes the task for makeup & hairstyling all the greater, but the fact everyone in this film visibly displays the mental and physical tolls of war, even in the most subtle of ways, adds everything to the film’s overall message.

International Feature Film - All Quiet on the Western Front

It would be nice to see the Polish ‘EO’ take the prize, as a well-crafted film that allows us to see the world from an animals perspective, not to mention that encouraging more films about donkeys can only be a good thing. Making this list is an achievement for all the films here, but All Quiet’s nomination for best picture should see it take this prize by default.

Film Editing - Everything Everywhere All At Once

I really wasn’t this films biggest fan, but it’s hard to pick any holes in its editing, which is arguably among its greatest achievements, adding a lot to the uniqueness, the overwhelming chaos enveloping Yeoh’s character, and the early momentum of the film.

Documentary (Short Subject) - Stranger At The Gate

A turbulent story but one that’s important to tell. Stranger At The Gate recounts the experiences of a former marine who plans an attack on a Mosque after developing Islamophobia as a result of PTSD. These plans thankfully change as a result of spending time within that community, but this documentary never overstates or steps inside the story, instead allowing the events to speak for themselves as much as possible.

Documentary (Feature Length) - Navalny

A feature-length praised for its high tension and likened to crime and spy-thrillers, Navalny tells the terrifyingly real story of Alexei Navalny, the leader of an opposition party in Russia, famously poisoned under suspicious circumstances.

Costume Design - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Very off the walls, very colourful, and a lot of the time the new costumes, ranging from glamorous to punk to sci-fi, are often our primary indicator that we’re in a new universe.

Cinematography - All Quiet On The Western Front

Locations were stellar, action sequences were intense, rigorous, and all-encapsulating, but there were moments where the camera really captured the beauty of some locations, such as the farm and the surrounding forest, allowing us to appreciate, like the characters, a rare moment of peace amidst the chaos.

Animated Feature Film - Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

They knew what they were doing when they put “Guillermo del Toro” in the official title of this film, that added prestige in the title may well take it over the line here. I believe Pinocchio would be a highly worthy winner, offering some very funny moments, while portraying some very bold and existentialist themes. I also believe we should be giving extra merit to films willing to display unique and experimental animation styles.

On that last point, and since society is coming round to the idea that animation is a medium for art rather than a synonym for children’s movies, can someone explain where Entergalactic is in this category? Anyone?

Directing - Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Again, an insanely difficult category to call, left very much up in the air by the absence of All Quiet’s Edward Berger. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinart’s Everything Everywhere offers a frenetic and wildly imaginative experience, packed to the brim with set pieces. Todd Field’s Tár is an incredibly refined and intense study on power and art-artist separation. Martin McDonagh’s Banshees of Inisherin is an impeccably-crafted film that draws stellar performances from its entire cast and balances on the line between comedy and tragedy throughout. Spielberg’s The Fabelmans is an intimate and nostalgic slow-burn, that is at times less a biopic of himself, but an exploration of the functions and importance of film. Robin Östlund’sTriangle of Sadness is perhaps the most unique film in this category, a film that draws unease from its comedic moments and draws comedy from its darkest moments.

Strong competition all round, but I think Spielberg has been perhaps overdue an Oscar for some time, and to honour a piece that documents his journey through film would be a strong tribute to a legendary career.

Actress in a Supporting Role - Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

A great character who is more invested in Farrell and Gleeson’s friendship drama than she’d like to be, but not afraid to call either of them out for below-the-belt tactics. Her delivery of “well then you’ve failed on both counts haven’t you?” should be enough to secure this prize on its own.

Actor in a Supporting Role - Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Judd Hirsch made his presence felt in The Fabelmans but I’m unsure whether it was a big enough role to secure a nomination and surprised not to see Paul Dano’s performance from the film here. I feel Babylon’s also been snubbed in this category, with the performances of Brad Pitt and particularly Diego Calva arguably strong enough to be here. From the nominees, I feel the recent momentum, as well as the range shown in the film, from downtrodden husband to secret agent, will see Everything Everywhere’s Ke Huy Quan take this award.

Actress in a Leading Role - Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Cate Blanchett has a strong shout, but I think Michelle Yeoh’s performance helped a very wild and at-times absurdist film maintain its humanity throughout, all the while showing her strengths as both an actor and an action performer.

Actor in a Leading Role - Austin Butler, Elvis

I mean we’ve been over this, the biopic wins best actor, always. Austin nailed this performance, the charm, the wiggling, the voice. And the fact he continued the Elvis voice for about a year after filming as part of his victory lap was just the icing on the cake.

Best Picture - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Just like to put on record, I did predict Coda last year. Same approach for this category, I’ll assess the chances for each nominee here.

Women Talking - A smartly written film exploring the different ways women within a religious group respond to a string of sexual assaults committed by the men in the colony. Lack of coverage in the other categories is unlikely to see it garner enough momentum to win the top prize, but never bet against Frances McDormand when it comes to the Oscars. 8%

Elvis - Don’t see it happening. Fantastic lead performance and musical numbers aside, this film largely suffered from flaws typical of many biopics, including only giving a surface-level insight into its titular character, not to mention a very peculiar supporting performance from Tom Hanks. 10%

Avatar: The Way of Water - Impeccable visuals, a brilliant technical production, though often plodding along at times. It was really the job of the original Avatar to win best picture though, and Way of Water may well lack the novelty factor that drove the original so close. 21%

Top Gun: Maverick - It couldn’t, could it? There was so much to enjoy about the film, as though cliche’d at times, it was still wildly entertaining throughout, offering vastly impressive stunts and flight sequences. It just doesn’t feel very best picture-y at the end of the day. 18%

Triangle of Sadness - Listen, I go weak at the knees for any film divided into acts, so I’m gonna go to bat for this one. Being released as part of a string of satires of the upper class this year, notably alongside The Menu, I found that Triangle arguably had a lot more to say and never seemed to rely on shock for the sake of it. Again though, the small shockwave felt by this films release in comparison to others in this category may affect its overall impact on the wider voting academy. 27%

Tár - An intense and brilliantly shot film, spearheaded by a powerhouse performance from Cate Blanchett and offering a robust commentary on some poignant issues over the last few years. A mid-grade commercial performance will likely hinder the film’s mainstream presence and this could be the key thing holding it back in this category. 33%

The Banshees of Inisherin - May possibly lack universal appeal, but its uniqueness, as well as a string of strong performances within will likely see it top many voters ballots. Its chances of taking the Bafta for best film were arguably much stronger than its chances at Best Picture here, so the fact it didn’t secure that award might be a bad omen. 36%

The Fabelmans - I just really enjoyed this film. Its runtime never felt overbearing, the cast was fantastic, its plot points were subtle yet impactful. As an unofficial biopic of Steven Spielberg, it does everything a biopic should do, it takes us into the mind of its main character, informs us how they see the world, and shows us the world they came from. It’s got enough star names propelling it, and though it doesn’t have huge coverage across other categories, a win for either screenplay or directing could make it a serious contender here. 50%

All Quiet on the Western Front - Fantastically crafted, fantastically executed, with strong cinematography, great music, and a chilling message that lingers long after the credits. Remakes have won the top prize before, and it did scoop the Bafta for best film, but it’s hard to know how much it will resonate in America, and whether they’re likely to name a foreign-language Best Picture winner so soon after Parasite. 56%

Everything Everywhere All At Once - The best film here? No. The most fun film here? No. The most unique film here? Maybe. But it is a high concept film, propelled by set pieces and strong performances, with a killer first act that makes it highly accessible. Given this, its award momentum, and its vast coverage in the various categories, suggesting it has fans in all branches of the Academy, I think there’s enough to make Everything Everywhere a front runner. Maybe it does deserve it just for the rock scene. 75%

Aaaaaand them’s are my predictions for this year. I’m trying to beat a dismal 11 from last year (where I was evidently too stingy towards Dune). I notice I’ve made it this far without accidentally mentioning the incident from last year, so all I’ll say is it will be interesting to see the many ways that various presenters will likely be referring to it throughout the night, namely how tasteful they’ll be about the situation. As a betting man, I’m guessing not very.

Hopefully you’ve been inspired to check out some of the films on offer this year. I would 100% recommend The Fabelmans in particular, but if you’re looking for a smaller time commitment, check out the short film nominees, several of which can be found at The New Yorker (Night Ride, Ice Merchants) or shortoftheweek.com (The Flying Sailor, My Year of Dicks).