My Picks for the 94th Academy Awards

They’re ba-ack. The Oscars have come around once more and though this year I find my passion for whomever may win waning, this does highlight the real value of the Oscars and the awards season. Time and time again, the Oscars buzz has lead me to watch countless films that I had never seen advertised and may otherwise have never seen. With this in mind, the real prize of the Oscars season is getting nominated, and the extra attention that brings to the film. Winning the award is really just the cherry on top.

Now, having just downplayed the value of actually winning the award on the night, allow me to go in depth as I bring you my predictions for which film will take home each award on Oscars night.

Writing, Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza

This is an interesting category as most of the films who appear to be frontrunners for Best Picture have found themselves in the Adapted category. I’ve chosen Licorice Pizza and, while I don’t believe it to be a perfect film and I would have liked the film’s many episodes to have weaved into each other a bit more seamlessly, I believe that this is the film that most effectively created an experience and made me care about the film’s protagonists. Second choice would be Belfast, as I enjoyed the approach of telling the story of the troubles through the eyes of a child, akin to JoJo Rabbit.

Don’t Look Up’s inclusion in this category is an interesting one as I found it’s writing to be one of the things actually letting the film down. Don’t Look Up I found to be rife with bathos, a result of Adam McKay being unsure whether he wants to make a comedy or a drama, leading to the film’s dramatic moments constantly being undercut by a subsequent comedic moment and vice-versa. This was most evidenced in the film’s credits when, in a time in which we should be thinking about the film and letting its message wash over us, we are instead pulled back into the film and forced to laugh at Jonah Hill going live on Instagram.

Writing, Adapted Screenplay: Coda

Coda and The Power of the Dog appear to be the frontrunners in this category. Again, I don’t believe there are any perfect screenplays in this category, with some hefty pacing issues here and there, but I found The Power of the Dog to be the film that enticed me to ask the most questions and stayed with me the longest. This said, I don’t expect any films to do a full sweep this year, and as I expect TPOTD to take best director, I’ll give best screenplay instead to Coda.

Visual Effects: Dune

Locked in. Didn’t really need to check the rest of the nominees for this one.

Sound: Dune

Dune was a film where I was actually conscious of the effectiveness of the sound design on display, especially as the film spanned environments with so many different soundscapes, from ambient temples, to bustling vehicle hangers, to windy sand dunes, as well as spacey dream sequences.

Short Film, Live Action: Ala Kachuu - Take and Run

Short Film, Animated: Bestia

Production Design: The Tragedy of Macbeth

I would be surprised if this didn’t win. What strikes me is how the films many locations seemed crafted specifically to get that one perfect shot. And boy did it look good the whole way through.

Music (Original Song): “No Time to Die” - No Time To Die

The James Bond song wins this category, sorry I don’t make the rules, that’s just how it is.

Music (Original Score): The Power of the Dog

“Really? Jonny Greenwood? The guitarist from Radiohead?” I hear myself ask. Correct! Jonny produced The Power of the Dog’s rather subtle musical score which never looks to overbear any scene but manages to ensure the film’s punches are fully felt.

Makeup and Hairstyling: Cruella

The half black and half white hair will always be iconic and deserves every award it can get.

International Feature Film: Drive My Car

The Hand of God and The Worst Person In The World have both pulled up trees this year, but this is a category you can often accurately predict just by analysing other categories, and Drive My Car’s nomination for best picture should ensure it also wins here.

Film Editing: Dune

I can forgive not wanting to nominate Last Night in Soho for best picture. I can even understand if you didn’t think its screenplay was up to the standards of the others in its category. But snubbing it for best editing? That crosses the line.

Documentary (Short Subject): Lead Me Home

Documentary (Feature): Summer of Soul (…or, When the Revolution could not be Televised)

Costume Design: Nightmare Alley

Some nice fur coats, some excellent waist coats, some stunning Toni Collette looks, and at one point Willem Dafoe was dressed a LOT like Indiana Jones. What’s not to like?

Cinematography: The Tragedy of Macbeth

Head says Dune, heart says Macbeth. What appeals to me about Macbeth is that it wasn’t filmed in a way a standard Hollywood production would be, and for a Shakespeare play, I feel that’s very much fitting.

Animated Feature Film: Flee

A surprising 3 nominations for Flee on the night and this is the category I believe it will take, in a defiant win against the Disney-Pixar machine.

Directing: Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog

For the Academy to recognise a female director for the second year in a row would mark a huge achievement, but I don’t believe this will be the reason Jane wins. Campion brought a bold style to an already bold and quirky story, often letting scenes play out longer than other directors might, to ensure we are fully seeped in the environment and to let the characters’ emotions come across. One aspect I admire is how the scenes in this film placed as much focus on the opposite character’s reaction, as it does on the action of the scene itself, something that helps the progression and the gravity of the story translate clearly to the audience.

Actress in a Supporting Role: Ariana DeBose - West Side Story

As Anita, Ariana played a character with an aura, who was protective of her friends and family, and seemed to immediately have the power in any situation she was in. The peak though is the performance of the song ‘America’ which she absolutely nails. The fact she wears some absolutely stunning outfits shouldn’t really count in her favour, but I’m counting it anyway.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Troy Kotsur - CODA

Not only is he the first male deaf actor to ever be nominated in this category, but the momentum of the awards season so far off the back of his BAFTAs win, suggests he may well win it outright. It’s a remarkable achievement to be able to give a full acting performance completely non-verbal, but Troy pulls it off, ensuring we feel his pain and his frustrations throughout the film, while also, through a fantastic physical performance, ensuring that every joke or comedic moment his character is involved in lands seamlessly.

Best Actress: Kristen Stewart - Spencer

While the Oscars and the BAFTAs usually mirror each other pretty nicely in both their nominations and their winners, there’s a surprisingly major discrepancy in the best leading actress category, as for this category, each ceremony has a completely different set of nominees. The BAFTAs gave this award to Joanna Scanlan of After Love, who beat out the likes of Lady Gaga, Alana Haim, and Tessa Thompson.

With none of the aforementioned nominated for the Oscar, it’s hard to have any reference point. I feel I can rule out Nicole Kidman as, while her performance was a strong one, her character in Being The Ricardos didn’t have the emotional progression to make this a standout role. I predict that this will go to Kristen Stewart who played Princess Diana in Spencer, a portrayal that received acclaim and helped ground a somewhat experimental and absurdist script. Further to this, leading actor categories tend to favour biopics, in part due to their large proportion of screen time.

Best Actor: Andrew Garfield - Tick, Tick…Boom

I suspect this may go to either Will Smith or Benedict Cumberbatch, both whom seem to have momentum going into awards season. Though I agree that both have strong performances, I would really like to see Andrew Garfield take this award. It seemed to be the most challenging role on display, a musical, comedic, high-energy portrayal of a composer desperate to produce one of his great works before he reaches the dreaded age of 30. While these eccentricities allow him to own the stage/screen, it is the off-screen melancholy with which his character handles and seems to accept aspects of his life deteriorating as a trade-off for working towards his goal that truly take this performance to another level.

Best Picture: Coda

For this category, I’m gonna take a different approach and assess the chances of every nominee. Right let’s go.

Nightmare Alley - Despite being very well made, I don’t see this as a frontrunner in part due to the lack of a noticeable buzz for the film as well as the rather bleak storyline, although Del Toro films have come out on top in this category before. 50%.

Don’t Look Up - I would be disappointed to see the big award on the night go to Don’t Look Up. It may win on the back of the star-power of its cast and the academy wanting to recognise the pressing issue of climate change, but films have brought this issue to the best picture category before, and done so with much more to say about it and much more nuance than DLU could muster up here. 33%.

Dune - A fantastic looking film with stunning effects, a good cast with strong performances all round, and a very popular base material. What I found to let the film down was a very exposition/plot heavy script that made it hard to fully connect with the characters, and this, combined with the fact that the film only told half a story, may play against its Best Picture chances, along with the fact that this category very rarely favours films of the sci-fi genre. 42%

Drive My Car - An intimate, slow (sometimes too slow) burner of a film with an eerie tone that documents some fascinating aspects of the writing process, and produces some stellar monologues. For an international film to take home Best Picture still represents an enormous achievement, and Drive My Car doesn’t seem to have the same buzz that Parasite had driving it in 2020, but the fact it’s amassed best screenplay and best director nominations means it’s merits are well recognised by the academy. 37%

Licorice Pizza - I’m gonna make a strong case for Licorice Pizza here, as I found that no other film in this category gave a more enjoyable watching experience, a more compelling set of leads, or a greater urge to rewatch the film again. Licorice Pizza is littered with Hollywood royalty too, with cameos from Sean Penn and Bradley Cooper, and flawless directing from 11-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson, who squeezes incredible acting performances from dual-leads Cooper Hoffman (son of Phillip Seymour Hoffman) and Alana Haim, in just their 1st and 2nd acting credits. This film will be a nostalgic experience for many, with the two leads representing different stages, motives, and romantic approaches that many of us will have gone through at some point, and the film I feel does a better job of capturing the glamour of 60’s/70’s America than Once Upon A Time In Hollywood did a few years prior. 60%.

Belfast - In the same way as Licorice Pizza, I found Belfast to be an enjoyable watch, with a lot of nostalgia related to the way lead character Jude approaches his childhood, navigating new friendships and romantic interests, as well as the amusing dynamics that arise from living with his siblings, parents, and grandparents all in a cramped house together. What may stand against Belfast, along with a lack of real star power, is the fact that the full impact and the horrors of the troubles are never fully felt and seem more resigned to the backseat in this film. 56%.

King Richard - A good, solid film, with strong performances and some nice locations. The main thing that stands against this film for me is that there were many points where I could feel it sticking too rigidly to the Hollywood Biopic formula, however, the fact it tells an underdog story, and a real story of the breaking down of barriers, specifically Venus and Serena Williams becoming 2 of the greatest Tennis players of all time despite the colour of their skin, should put it in good stead. 52%.

The Power Of The Dog - The competitive force of Jane Campion’s film is a strange one as though it appears to be a frontrunner, it has the most nominations of any film this year, looks set to win best director, and took home the BAFTA for best film, it actually boasts the lowest IMDb score of all the films in this category. There is a lot to like about this film, and also a lot that could easily turn off viewers, with the off pacing, unpleasant characters, and lack of a clear direction of where it’s headed. In the end, it may be momentum that drives Power of the Dog to best picture. 70%.

CODA - My favourite to win this award. A film that, in my opinion at least, seems to just tick all the right boxes for the best picture category. A pleasant watch that manages to be funny but can still pull a dramatic punch when it needs to, Coda is an uplifting story that shines a light on a community often forgotten about in society, something the Academy usually relishes to recognise. 80%.

And these have been my predictions as I attempt to beat my tally of 14 for last year. I haven’t covered the proposed “Oscars Fan Favourite” award because…come on. The day we start awarding Oscars based on Twitter votes is the start of a slippery slope. Hopefully you’ve been inspired to check out some films you may not have seen, or at least have some idea of what to expect from this year’s Academy Awards.

Enjoy the ceremony, and Happy Mother’s Day to all mothers,

Luke